March 03, 2023

NSW Voting Intention: ALP lead over the L-NP increases slightly in late February: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

Topic: Press Release, Public Opinion, Special Poll
Finding No: 9198
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A special Roy Morgan SMS Poll on State voting intention in New South Wales shows the ALP on 52.5% (up 0.5% points since January) ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 47.5% (down 0.5% points) in late February less than a month before the State Election.

This Roy Morgan SMS Poll on State voting intention was conducted via SMS with 981 New South Wales electors aged 18+ from February 24-28, 2023.

Majority approve Dominic Perrottet’s job performance, but Chris Minns narrowly preferred as Premier

This special Roy Morgan SMS Poll shows a narrow contest between the two leaders with a slight majority of 54% of electors saying that Opposition Leader Chris Minns is the ‘Better Premier’ compared to 46% that select incumbent Premier Dominic Perrottet.

Despite narrowly losing the ‘Better Premier’ contest a slim majority of 53% of electors say they approve of the job Premier Dominic Perrottet is doing compared to 47% who disapprove.

Primary voting intention shows the ALP on 33.5% just ahead of the Coalition on 32.5%

The ALP has a slight primary vote lead on 33.5% at the end of February, up 1% point since January and is now just ahead of the Liberal-National Coalition on 32.5%, down 2.5% points.

Not since the 2007 New South Wales Election have both major parties failed to secure a primary vote support of at least 40% in a New South Wales State Election.

Minor party support is high but final candidate declarations are set to lower this support

Importantly and following the example of last year’s Federal Election, over a third of the electorate, 34%, say they will vote for minor parties and independents, up 1.5% points on January.

The two minor parties attracting most of this support are from opposite ends of the political spectrum with the Greens on 11%, up 1.5% points since January, and One Nation on 8.5%, up 2% points.

However, although the Greens are expected to stand candidates in all 93 lower house seats in the election, One Nation will be unlikely to field candidates in more than half of the seats up for grabs.

The final nominations for seats close next week (Wednesday March 8, 2023) and at that point we will be able to properly weight the support of minor parties like One Nation based on how many seats they will actually stand a candidate in.

Depending on how many seats One Nation actually stand a candidate in a substantial portion of their potential support is set to flow back to the two major parties – especially the Liberal-National coalition. This effect is likely to narrow the ALP’s two-party preferred lead over the next few weeks.

This Roy Morgan SMS Poll shows high support for both the Greens and One Nation and this result would deliver both minor parties seats in the upper house. The election for the upper house in NSW is a state-wide election and parties need to receive just 4.5% of the state-wide vote to guarantee winning a seat.

A further 14.5% of electors support other minor parties and independents including the Animal Justice Party, ‘Teal Independents’ and other minor parties such as the Shooters, Fishers, Farmers Party (SFF), Legalise Cannabis Party and the Liberal Democrats, down 2% on January.

It is not yet confirmed how many lower house candidates these parties will stand at the election.

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the New South Wales election continues to be a closely fought contest with the official election campaign set to begin next week when the electoral rolls and candidate nominations for the election close:

Block Quote

“This special Roy Morgan SMS Poll of NSW voting intention conducted in late February shows there is little to split the two major parties with the ALP on 52.5% (up 0.5% points since January) enjoying a slight two-party preferred edge over the Liberal-National Coalition on 47.5% (down 0.5% points).

“A look at primary voting intention shows almost a three-way split between the ALP on 33.5%, just ahead of the Coalition on 32.5%, while 34% of electors say they will support a minor party or independent candidate. This is a very similar split to last year’s Federal Election when the ALP won Government despite securing only 32.6% of the primary vote.

“There are two minor parties attracting a large share of the primary vote led by the Greens on 11% (up 1.5% points since January) and One Nation on 8.5% (up 2% points). The Greens currently control three seats in the NSW lower house while One Nation has just one seat, although the current member is not re-contesting her seat but is set to stand for the upper house instead.

“Because One Nation will not be standing candidates in all 93 lower house seats their support at the election is unlikely to reach this level in the lower house. The current high level of support for One Nation will flow back to the two major parties, and especially the Coalition, over the next few weeks after full candidate lists for every seat are confirmed next week, tightening the gap even further.

“As we get closer to election day the margins between the two major parties are also set to close due to the benefits of incumbency which usually favour the Government of the day. In last year’s Federal Election the Coalition Government gained 2-3% points over the last month of the campaign but this wasn’t enough to close the gap which was heavily in the ALP’s favour early last year.

“If the State Coalition Government in New South Wales can repeat this performance over the next month the result of the election will be on a knife’s edge on election day. The low primary vote for the major parties means the preference deals struck with the minor parties and independents is set to be a key factor in deciding who will lead the next NSW State Government.

“A look at the two leaders shows how tight the election is set to be. A majority of 53% of electors say they approve of the job Premier Dominic Perrottet is doing but despite this a narrow majority of 54% of electors say they believe Opposition Leader Chris Minns would make the ‘Better Premier’ compared to 46% who support Perrottet.”

Question 1:

“If a State Election for New South Wales were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?”

New South Wales Primary Voting Intention – Trends.

New South Wales Electors 18+    
PRIMARY 2019 NSW
Election
September
2022*
October
2022*
November
2022*
December
2022*
January 2023* Feb. 24-28,
2023
VOTE % % % % % % %
L-NP 41.6 34 32 37 33.5 35 32.5
ALP 33.3 34 36.5 35 33.5 32.5 33.5
Total Others 25.1 32 31.5 28 33 32.5 34
Greens 9.6 12.5 9.5 11.5 12 9.5 11
One Nation 1.1 3.5 5.5 5 4.5 6.5 8.5
Animal Justice Party 1.5 1.5 1 0.5 1 1.5 3
‘Teal Independents’ n/a 0.5 1 0.5 1 0.5 3.5
Other Parties 4.4 3 2.5 2.5 3 2 8
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers (SFF) Party 3.5 1 1 1.5 1 1.5 n/a
Legalise Cannabis Party n/a 2 1.5 0.5 1 1 n/a
Liberal Democrats 0.2 0.5 1 0.5 0.5 0.5 n/a
Independents 4.8 7.5 8.5 5.5 9 9.5 n/a
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*Roy Morgan multi-mode polls conducted in the months of September 2022, October 2022, November 2022, December 2022 & January 2023 with a representative cross-section of New South Wales electors aged 18+.

New South Wales Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention – Trends.

New South Wales Electors 18+    
2019 NSW
Election
September
2022*
October
2022*
November
2022*
December
2022*
January
2023*
Feb. 24-28,
2023
2PP % % % % % % %
L-NP 52 47 43 48 45 48 47.5
ALP 48 53 57 52 55 52 52.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*Roy Morgan multi-mode polls conducted in the months of September 2022, October 2022, November 2022, December 2022 & January 2023 with a representative cross-section of New South Wales electors aged 18+.

For further comment or more information contact:

Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or Julian McCrann 0434 361 298 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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